Hypothetical scenarios are one of my favorite discussion tools. I like them for their objectivity and the way they trigger thoughts that we might not usually explore.
But are hypotheticals in a conversation always a good idea?
I asked Perplexity AI to tell me the advantages of hypotheticals:
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To Explore Possible Outcomes and Consequences
Hypotheticals allow participants to imagine “what if” scenarios that help anticipate outcomes, evaluate risks and benefits, and make more informed decisions. -
To Clarify Abstract or Complex Ideas
Using a hypothetical example can concretize abstract concepts by providing a relatable, imaginary scenario. -
To Stimulate Critical Thinking and Multiple Perspectives
Hypotheticals encourage examining an issue from varying angles and self-reflection. They promote critical reasoning by exposing participants to alternative viewpoints.
These advantages “dance around” my perceived advantage of hypotheticals (objectivity), but they indirectly support it. Critical thinking and possible outcomes are both more easily explored without subjective “baggage” of our thoughts and opinions.
I then asked Perplexity for the disadvantages of hypotheticals:
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Vagueness and Ambiguity
Hypotheticals can be too vague or overly abstract, leading to inconsistent and unclear responses. Because they deal with imagined scenarios, participants might interpret them differently, reducing the reliability and clarity of the discussion. -
Lack of Real-World Applicability
Hypothetical scenarios may not accurately reflect real-world complexities or behaviors, causing participants to overestimate or misjudge how situations would unfold in practice. -
Potential for Misleading or Fallacious Reasoning
Hypotheticals can lead to reasoning errors such as affirming the consequent or applying unrealistic premises, which may derail the discussion or distract from the core issues.
This list is a great summary of the issues with using hypotheticals. The bleed of hypotheticals into meaningless abstraction, as well as the lack of clarity for “why” the hypothetical is relevant (what is the point of it, what target question are we really trying to hit) are identifiable weak points.
There are then several key points for the use (and when not to use) hypotheticals:
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They are not suited for critical, especially acute, decision making. For example, anyone who has run an internet business or site knows that there are key real world conditions when you have a site down. In the middle of a crisis, hypotheticals would almost always waste time and resources from quickly fixing the issue.
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Try to remove any “triggering” aspects of a hypothetical, like politics or life/death scenarios. Even a hypothetical with these topics will suffer from subjectivity, since people may have strong feelings about those related aspects.
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Make the point of the hypothetical clear at the beginning, when possible. Asking people a hypothetical question with bizarre or triggering points will confuse and distract people, and you will often end up farther from clarity than you were at the start.
With these ideas in mind, engage with the Mindset Dojo for some good hypothetical discussions.
